Possible Showers to Begin the Week Featured

Dr. Mark Sinclair, ERAU Meteorology September 28, 2021 81

Widespread showers & scattered thunderstorms


Big Idea

  • Showers to bring much appreciated rain this week
  • Sunny, dry & warmer for the weekend
  • Hello, fall! Highs generally in the 70’s this week
  • Weather computer models explained
  •


Rain and sun this week! Who could ask for anything better?



Lingering low pressure will bring widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms Monday, clearing on Tuesday.  A chances of showers will return Wednesday through Friday. Sunny warmer weather will return for the weekend.


Forecast Table:


Navigate on the map to your location and click for a detailed local forecast.



Today, showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially this afternoon and early evening when rainfall could become more widespread. Storm motion will be from the north. Tomorrow, clearing with only scattered afternoon showers. Wednesday to Friday will be mostly sunny but with a chance of afternoon showers. The weekend will be sunny, dry and a little warmer. Highs will generally be in the 70s.


Additional notes for the weather nuts:

Weather forecasters use several computer models for guidance. These models, like politicians, seldom agree (and like politicians, they sometimes mislead ☹). In some situations, weather patterns can be difficult to predict because of the occasionally chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation patterns. Such has been the case over the past few days, when different models have yielded a spread of results. Forecasters also use a technique known as ensemble prediction, when a collection (or ensemble) of runs of the same model are made that differ slightly in their initial conditions (the input data used to start the model). When these yield results that cluster around a certain pattern, forecasters can be more confident of their forecasts. However, as has been happening over the past few days, when these yield a spread of results, forecasters have to broad brush their forecasts. These ensembles are also used to forecast the probability of certain phenomena. When, for example, 40 out of 50 ensemble members predict precipitation for a region, the forecaster will assign an 80% chance of precipitation. Despite this uncertainty, modern weather forecasts are remarkably accurate, with useful skill out to about two weeks in advance.


Have a great week!



Mark Sinclair, Ph.D.                                                               
Program Chair and Professor, Meteorology                                                                              
Department of Applied Aviation Sciences, College of Aviation                                

3700 Willow Creek Rd                                                                                                  
Prescott, AZ 86301                                                                                                       
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.                                                                          

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University                                                     
Florida | Arizona | Worldwide

Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University: Website | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube

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Last modified on Tuesday, 28 September 2021 02:32
Published in Azeducation.news

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