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Dr. Mark Sinclair, ERAU June 13, 2022 88

Sunny, windy, rain? All that is bundled into this week's forecast.

Big Idea

  • Monday is a Red Flag Warning day, sunny and HOT
  • Tuesday - Thursday, still HOT, not quite as windy
  • Friday, we’ll maybe see some monsoon weather
  • Saturday looks like the best bet for monsoon moisture
  •

Lots of weather to see this week!

Sunny, very windy and warm today, with a warming trend through midweek. Monsoon moisture should arrive Friday and through the weekend with a chance of thunderstorms.

What a great way to usher in Monsoon Awareness Week!

Forecast Table:


Navigate on the map to your location and click for a detailed local forecast.


Today, sunny and warm with southwest winds gusting to 40 mph, bringing potentially dangerous fire weather conditions. Today is a Red Flag Warning day. Please be very careful.

Winds moderating a little (to 20-30 mph) Tuesday through Thursday but with afternoon highs warming to high 90s to mid 100s by Thursday. From Friday, expect an increase of moisture, bringing a 30% chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms, especially over high terrain, with afternoon highs cooling 5-10 degrees compared with Thursday.   At this stage, the most active thunderstorm day appears to be Saturday.

Additional notes for the weather nuts:

The increased moisture predicted for the weekend is due to a deep southerly flow ahead of a trough of low pressure that is expected to develop over the Pacific. As this flow becomes established, moisture already present over Mexico to our south, can surge northward.  In order to form, thunderstorms need instability, abundant low-level moisture and a lifting mechanism. Instability refers to the tendency for air to continue to accelerate upward when initially lifted by afternoon thermal activity or mountains. If this rising air makes it to great altitudes, it will produce thunderheads. Instability and the thunderstorms that result from it are helped by low-level moisture. When forecasting thunderstorms, meteorologists watch for increasing dew point temperatures, which tell how much moisture is present in the atmosphere.

The GFS model forecast for Prescott for the next two weeks (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/gfs_usa/ts_gfs_usa_meteogram_kprc.gif) show increased dew points (the dark blue curve below the red temperature curve) during the 18th and 19th, with low-grade shower activity predicted during those days (the blue/purple bars). Note that in the graph, times are in UTC, which is 7 hours ahead of MST.

Have a great week!


Mark Sinclair, Ph.D.
Program Chair and Professor, Meteorology
Department of Applied Aviation Sciences, College of Aviation

Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University: Website | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube


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Last modified on Monday, 13 June 2022 10:52
Published in Azeducation.news

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