Monsoon Rains Entirely Possible This Week! Featured

Dr. Mark Sinclair, ERAU June 28, 2022 102

The monsoons are here! Where it rains is up for grabs!

Big Idea

  • Monsoon Moisture could be in town this week
  • Thunderstorms need bright sunshine to provide the surface heating and buoyancy to get started
  • Afternoon and evening showers could occur any day
  • Then again, it could be dry!
  •

The charming, unpredictable, capricious monsoons are here!


With monsoon moisture in place, expect afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day.

Forecast Table:


Navigate on the map to your location and click for a detailed local forecast.


Clouds increasing each afternoon with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Highs in the high 80s to low 90s. Showers may be more widespread Wednesday and again over the weekend.

Additional notes for the weather nuts:

Thunderstorms need bright sunshine to provide the surface heating and buoyancy to get started. This past weekend, thunderstorms were limited in many areas by high cloudiness that reduced solar heating. This cloud resulted from anvil clouds (the spreading tops of thunderstorms) from thunderstorms that formed over the Bradshaws. This cloud shaded much of our area, preventing new storms from forming. Anvil shading usually hinders storms when the winds are unidirectional and increasing with height, resulting in anvil cloud shading of areas ahead of the storm. Today and tomorrow, we will see northeasterly winds between the surface and about 24,000 ft, with upper winds at the anvil level from the west. This means that storms will move toward the southwest, but their anvils will spread away to the east, allowing maximum solar heating over areas that the storms are moving toward. In this situation, storms typically form in the late morning over the Mogollon Rim and move southwest toward Prescott. This morning’s sounding from Flagstaff also showed very dry air above 24,000 ft, indicating that any anvil cloud will dissipate quickly.


Mark Sinclair, Ph.D.
Program Chair and Professor, Meteorology
Department of Applied Aviation Sciences, College of Aviation

From the National Weather Service in Flagstaff Twitter post.

Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University: Website | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube

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Last modified on Tuesday, 28 June 2022 11:39
Published in Azeducation.news

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