It is expected to dry out a little, and then get moist again
Big Idea
- Expect slight drying and warming for the first couple of days
- Monsoons and cooling for the rest of the week
- Might get hail on Wednesday - Thursday
- Last week was wetter than normal
- Read more...
We love the rain!
Forecast Summary:
Today and for the beginning of the week, expect slight drying and warming for the first couple of days, then moistening and cooling for the latter part of the week. There will be a decreasing chance of afternoon thunderstorm activity today and tomorrow, with an increasing chance of thunderstorm activity on Wednesday and a good chance of thunderstorms each day through the coming weekend and next week.. Temperatures for this week will be slightly warmer than last week with lows in the mid to high 60s and the highs in the mid 80s much of the week, except rising into the upper 80s or lower 90s Tuesday - Wednesday. Surface winds will generally be from the southwest about 5-10 mph except near thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms later this week could become better organized into lines or produce larger hail (especially Wednesday to Thursday). Storm motion will be generally towards the west or northwest at 5-10 kts, though more organized cells could propagate west or southwestward.
Forecast Table:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/wxtables/
Navigate on the map to your location and click for a detailed local forecast.
Discussion:
Last week was wetter than normal, and for the monsoon thus far rainfall totals range from near normal to 5” or 6” above normal across Yavapai County (depending on location). Most areas have had 1”-3” above normal. For coarse maps of rainfall totals, go to https://water.weather.gov/precip/. For detailed precipitation totals, see the cooperative daily rainfall total reports at www.cocorahs.org/.
Today and tomorrow, we will see some drying conditions as a weak upper-level trough moving across the Great Basin and northern Rockies temporarily flattens our ridge and ushers in warmer and drier southwesterly winds and creates subsidence and warming over our area. Thus, surface dew points will decrease slightly over northern Arizona while the atmosphere warms. The chance for thunderstorms will decrease today and tomorrow. By Wednesday, the ridge is expected to amplify and shift northeastward. The upper-level wind as a result will become easterly to southeasterly across northern Arizona from midweek into the weekend. The return to easterly winds will help moisten the atmosphere and bring slight cooling. With surface winds from the southwest and mid-level winds from the east at about 20 kts (especially Wednesday to Thursday), we will likely have sufficient shearing in the wind with height to create more organized storms. We could experience some larger hail up to 1” diameter and experience convective systems/squall lines moving across the area from the east or northeast. Frequent lightning and possibly local flooding conditions will also be possible, especially over burn scars and where the soil is fairly saturated.
Tropical Storm Frank and Tropical Depression Georgette are currently located in the eastern tropical Pacific way off the coast of the Baja of California, but they are not expected to affect Arizona. Later in the monsoon, however, from late August through September, it is more likely for remnants of tropical cyclones to move across Arizona and enhance our monsoon activity. Major flash floods are sometimes the result of these tropical systems affecting Arizona.
C. James / A. Infante
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Curtis N. James, Ph.D.
Professor of Meteorology
Applied Aviation Sciences
Prescott Campus
3700 Willow Creek Road
Prescott, AZ 86301-3720
928.777.6655
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