This week's forecast is similar to last week's
- Expect relatively mild surface temperatures continuing into this week
- There are high probabilities of afternoon thunderstorm activity
- Starting Thursday, the storm motion will likely shift towards the south west
- Storms may bring flash flooding, lightning, hail
- Read more...
Monsoons remain in this week’s forecast
Today’s weather briefing is authored by senior meteorology student, Ariana Infante, and co-authored by Dr. James…
This week's forecast is pretty consistent with last week's forecast. We will be experiencing relatively mild surface temperatures, ranging from low/mid 60s to low 80s, continuing into this week and remaining through early next week. High probabilities of afternoon thunderstorm activity every day, with storm motion typically tending to the northeast or east at 5-10 mph through Wednesday. Thursday through the weekend, the storm motion will likely shift towards the southwest, with potential for convective systems coming into the Prescott area from the northeast. Surface winds will be light and variable between 5 to 10 mph, with stronger winds present around thunderstorms. The storms this week will be capable of local flash flooding, frequent lightning, and small hail. Some isolated severe storms with larger hail or damaging wind gusts could occur over the coming weekend.
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Last week's amplified ridge has weakened and remains over the southwest, but with a weak embedded upper-level low circulating counterclockwise over northwestern Arizona. There is a very moist airmass in place, though the next few days, we may see a bit more sunshine, because the southwest winds around the will usher slightly drier air into the upper atmosphere. Nevertheless, the daily chance for thunderstorms will remain high, and the added solar heating could help to keep the air unstable. The upper-level wind will increase later in the week from the southwest, while the mid-level winds will become northerly in advance of an approaching shortwave trough moving into Arizona from the southeast. This shear profile could tend towards better storm organization and possible lines of convection moving across Yavapai County from the northeast, with a greater possibility of severe thunderstorms and nighttime convection (especially Thursday night). The dewpoint temperatures remain consistent with what we have seen for most of the monsoon season with temperatures ranging from mid 50s to low 60s. Moderate levels of instability will persist all week and through the weekend, with generally low CIN (low resistance to thunderstorm development). Another wet week in store!
A. Infante / C. James
Curtis N. James, Ph.D.
Professor of Meteorology
Applied Aviation Sciences
3700 Willow Creek Road
Prescott, AZ 86301-3720
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
Florida | Arizona | Worldwide
Embry-Riddle Prescott Meteorology Website:
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