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Weather Briefing: Monsoons Continue Featured

This week's forecast is similar to last week's

Big Idea

  • Expect relatively mild surface temperatures continuing into this week
  • There are high probabilities of afternoon thunderstorm activity
  • Starting Thursday, the storm motion will likely shift towards the south west
  • Storms may bring flash flooding, lightning, hail
  • Read more...

 

Monsoons remain in this weeks forecast

Today’s weather briefing is authored by senior meteorology student, Ariana Infante, and co-authored by Dr. James…

 

Forecast Summary:

Happy Monday!

This week's forecast is pretty consistent with last week's forecast. We will be experiencing relatively mild surface temperatures, ranging from low/mid 60s to low 80s, continuing into this week and remaining through early next week. High probabilities of afternoon thunderstorm activity every day, with storm motion typically tending to the northeast or east at 5-10 mph through Wednesday. Thursday through the weekend, the storm motion will likely shift towards the southwest, with potential for convective systems coming into the Prescott area from the northeast. Surface winds will be light and variable between 5 to 10 mph, with stronger winds present around thunderstorms. The storms this week will be capable of local flash flooding, frequent lightning, and small hail. Some isolated severe storms with larger hail or damaging wind gusts could occur over the coming weekend.

 

Forecast Table:

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/wxtables/

Navigate on the map to your location and click for a detailed local forecast.

 

Forecast Discussion:

Last week's amplified ridge has weakened and remains over the southwest, but with a weak embedded upper-level low circulating counterclockwise over northwestern Arizona. There is a very moist airmass in place, though the next few days, we may see a bit more sunshine, because the southwest winds around the will usher slightly drier air into the upper atmosphere. Nevertheless, the daily chance for thunderstorms will remain high, and the added solar heating could help to keep the air unstable. The upper-level wind will increase later in the week from the southwest, while the mid-level winds will become northerly in advance of an approaching shortwave trough moving into Arizona from the southeast. This shear profile could tend towards better storm organization and possible lines of convection moving across Yavapai County from the northeast, with a greater possibility of severe thunderstorms and nighttime convection (especially Thursday night). The dewpoint temperatures remain consistent with what we have seen for most of the monsoon season with temperatures ranging from mid 50s to low 60s. Moderate levels of instability will persist all week and through the weekend, with generally low CIN (low resistance to thunderstorm development). Another wet week in store!

 

A. Infante / C. James

--

Curtis N. James, Ph.D.                                                                       
Professor of Meteorology

Applied Aviation Sciences

Prescott Campus

3700 Willow Creek Road                                                                                          
Prescott, AZ 86301-3720                                                                                         
928.777.6655                                                                               
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.                                                              

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University                                                  
Florida | Arizona | Worldwide

 

Embry-Riddle Prescott Meteorology Website:

http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/

This has a selection of model forecast products and other links.

 

 

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Last modified on Monday, 15 August 2022 22:13
Published in Azeducation.news
Dr. Curtis N. James, Ph.D.

Curtis N. James, Ph. D. Is a Professor of Meteorology at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in the Department of Applied Aviation Sciences.

He has taught courses in beginning meteorology, aviation weather, thunderstorms, satellite and radar imagery interpretation, atmospheric physics, mountain meteorology, tropical meteorology and weather forecasting techniques for over 16 years. He participates in ERAU’s Study Abroad program, offering alternating summer programs each year in Switzerland and Brazil.

He earned a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Washington (2004) and participated in the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP; 1999), an international field research project in the European Alps. His research specialties include radar, mesoscale, and mountain meteorology. He earned his B.S. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Arizona (1995), during which time he gained two years of operational experience as a student intern with the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Tucson, Arizona (1993-1995).

Dr. James is a native of Arizona where he currently resides with his wife and five children. He is active in his community, having served on the Prescott SciTechFest Advisory Committee and as a Board Member for the Children's Museum Alliance, Inc. On his spare time, he enjoys weather watching, backpacking, camping, fishing, caving, mountain biking, acting, and music. He is an Eagle Scout and serves as the scoutmaster for a local scout troop.

https://erau.edu/degrees/bachelor/bachelor-of-science-degree-in-applied-meteorology?campus=prescott

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