Big Idea

• Better chances of thunderstorm activity through the end of this week
• Chances will decrease early next week
• Mild highs in the 80’s
• Productive monsoon season this year!
• Read more...

Chances of Thunderstorm Activity This Week, Decreasing Next Week

Forecast Summary:

Better chances of thunderstorms Tuesday through about Saturday, then decreasing chances Sunday through early next week. Storm motion will be towards the south today, then shifting to westward to northwestward movement Tuesday through Wednesday. Storm motion Thursday through the weekend will then become increasingly eastward. Thunderstorms will generally be capable of locally heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, and small hail. Otherwise, winds will be variable in direction and generally range from 5-15 mph. High temperatures will be around the mid 80s except on days with more cloud cover or rain. Morning lows around 60.

Forecast Table:

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/wxtables/

Navigate on the map to your location and click for a detailed local forecast.

Forecast Discussion:

We had some impressive thunderstorms last Thursday, with convective systems (lines/clusters of storms) moving across parts of the Prescott area Friday through Sunday. Rainfall totals across Yavapai County for the past week have ranged from 0.25” in the northeastern part of the county to 5” in the mountains of northwestern and southern Yavapai. The lower atmosphere will remain moist through this week, but the coverage of thunderstorms will vary. The mid-level wind today is again from the north just like it was over the weekend. The northerly wind today will continue to provide enough shear for producing multicellular storms. However, the mid-levels are warmer and drier today than last week, which will limit the coverage of thunderstorms. 

Tomorrow and Wednesday, the mid-level winds will shift around to an easterly then southeasterly direction, moistening and cooling the air and leading to a better chance of storms, though less likely to organize into multicellular storms or lines due to weaker shear.

Thursday through the weekend, the mid-level flow aloft will become westerly and gradually strengthen through Sunday as an upper-level trough approaches and moves through the Great Basin, flattening the Four Corners ridge. Westerly flow will once again gradually dry out the mid-levels of the atmosphere over us and lead to a decrease in thunderstorm probability Sunday through early next week.

C. James

--

Curtis N. James, Ph.D.                                                                       
Professor of Meteorology

Applied Aviation Sciences

Prescott Campus

Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University: Website | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube