Big Idea

• Look for warm and dry through Thursday
• A chance for showers from Friday - Sunday
• We might get some remnants from Hurricane Kay
• Read more...

Only a minimal chance for showers at the beginning of the week

Forecast Summary:

Mostly sunny and hot the next few days. Light wind, except for south to southwesterly breezes in the afternoons with only a slight possibility for isolated high-based showers or thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 90s, lows in the lower 60s. Increasing clouds Thursday, with mostly cloudy skies, cooler temperatures, and a chance for showers or thunderstorms each day Friday – Sunday. 

Forecast Table:

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/wxtables/

Navigate on the map to your location and click for a detailed local forecast.

Forecast Discussion:

Strong high pressure aloft, centered over Utah, has led to so much subsidence warming over northern Arizona that the atmosphere has dried out considerably these past few days. Despite strong easterly flow across our area off the Mogollon Rim and good low-level wind shear, the low-level moisture content is pretty marginal. The probability for showers or thunderstorms to develop these next few days will be very minimal. High temperatures will be well above normal through about Thursday. 

For the weekend and early next week, a complicated weather pattern sets up. Tropical Storm Kay off the western coast of Mexico will strengthen into a hurricane and propagate generally northwestward. Most forecast models indicate that Kay will stay on the western side of the Baja of California, directed offshore by easterly winds around the mid-level high. The high will eventually weaken as the hurricane approaches and shift to the south and east as weak troughing develops along the West Coast. This pattern will cause cloudiness shearing off from Kay to move across Arizona this weekend, cutting off some of our solar heating and keeping the air more stable. But there is also some indication that Kay will cause additional low-level moisture to surge across our area. If we can get enough low-level moisture up here along with enough solar heating and shearing in the winds, we could see considerable shower and thunderstorm activity this coming weekend and early next week. If not, at least the high pressure will weaken and the cloudiness from Kay will bring welcome cooling of about 10 degrees by Friday – Saturday and maybe some light rain over the weekend and early next week. The remnants of Kay may eventually swing across Arizona by next Tuesday – Wednesday for a continuing chance of light showers.

C. James

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Curtis N. James, Ph.D.                                                                       
Professor of Meteorology

Applied Aviation Sciences

Prescott Campus

3700 Willow Creek Road                                                                                          
Prescott, AZ 86301-3720                                                                                         
928.777.6655                                                                               
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Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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