Good Chance for Rain to Return to Yavapai County Featured

Good chance for showers or thunderstorms this week!

Big Idea

  • Storms are expected to form during the mid-week
  • Highs in the mid 70’s-80’s
  • Look for warming and drying over the weekend
  • Could be some flash floods, too
  •


The monsoons haven’t disappeared yet!

Forecast Summary:

Monday: Mostly sunny, except for some clouds late in the day. High in the mid 80s. Breezy, with south winds 10-20 mph, gusting to 25 mph. 

Tuesday – Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy, with a good chance for showers or thunderstorms. Storms that form will propagate towards the north-northeast or northeast at least 15 or 20 mph. Some isolated storms could become strong or even severe. Highs in the mid 70s to 80. Morning lows in the upper 50s.

Friday – Sunday: Partly cloudy and gradually warmer and drier. Chance of thunderstorms decreasing through the period. Highs in the lower 80s. Lows cooling into the lower 50s.  


Forecast Table:


Navigate on the map to your location and click for a detailed local forecast.


Forecast Discussion:

An upper-level low has cut off from the jet stream and will stall just west of the California Coast for the next few days. With high pressure to the east, over Texas, the flow across Arizona will be south-southwesterly aloft for the next few days. This pattern will usher in more monsoon moisture across the Prescott Area by Tuesday afternoon and a jet streak will provide ample lifting and a deep shear environment, especially on Wednesday. Expect showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday, with the potential for flash flooding in some areas through the period.

Instability will be lacking somewhat, but if there is enough instability on Wednesday, we may have some isolated severe storms that exhibit some rotation.

Friday through the weekend, the availability of moisture will decrease and the probability for thunderstorms will diminish each day.


C. James


Curtis N. James, Ph.D.                                                                       
Professor of Meteorology

Applied Aviation Sciences

Prescott Campus

3700 Willow Creek Road                                                                                          
Prescott, AZ 86301-3720                                                                                         
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.                                                              

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University                                                  
Florida | Arizona | Worldwide 

MetMail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once per week via email. Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Meteorology (https://erau.edu/degrees/bachelor/meteorology?campus=Prescott). Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates! 

Embry-Riddle Prescott Meteorology Website: 


This has a selection of model forecast products and other links. 


Official National Weather Service Forecast: 


This clickable map will give you an official detailed local weather forecast for any location in the Western U.S.


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Last modified on Tuesday, 20 September 2022 00:18
Published in Azeducation.news
Dr. Curtis N. James, Ph.D.

Curtis N. James, Ph. D. Is a Professor of Meteorology at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in the Department of Applied Aviation Sciences.

He has taught courses in beginning meteorology, aviation weather, thunderstorms, satellite and radar imagery interpretation, atmospheric physics, mountain meteorology, tropical meteorology and weather forecasting techniques for over 16 years. He participates in ERAU’s Study Abroad program, offering alternating summer programs each year in Switzerland and Brazil.

He earned a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Washington (2004) and participated in the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP; 1999), an international field research project in the European Alps. His research specialties include radar, mesoscale, and mountain meteorology. He earned his B.S. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Arizona (1995), during which time he gained two years of operational experience as a student intern with the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Tucson, Arizona (1993-1995).

Dr. James is a native of Arizona where he currently resides with his wife and five children. He is active in his community, having served on the Prescott SciTechFest Advisory Committee and as a Board Member for the Children's Museum Alliance, Inc. On his spare time, he enjoys weather watching, backpacking, camping, fishing, caving, mountain biking, acting, and music. He is an Eagle Scout and serves as the scoutmaster for a local scout troop.


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