Big Idea

• Another storm system is expected to impact Northern AZ this week
• There could be wind gusts as high as 55 mph, elevated river flows
• Showers early on Wednesday, should be clear around noon
• Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-50's
• Read more

Look for rain during the week, and sunny skies on the weekend

Forecast Summary:

Another storm system is expected to impact northern Arizona this week. This storm will bring widespread rain and strong winds, especially Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Snow levels will mostly be above 7,500 ft but will fall to near 5,000 ft by Wednesday morning. Slight chances for showers continue Thursday. Sunny and slightly warmer conditions return for Friday and the weekend.

Monday: Cloudy, with a slight chance of showers, increasing overnight, with afternoon highs in the mid-50s. Southerly winds gusting to around 30 mph with overnight lows in the high 30s.

Tuesday: Rain or showers with southwest winds gusting as high as 55 mph, especially overnight. Highs in the high 40s and lows in the low-mid 30s. Light snow accumulation down to about 5,000 ft.

Wednesday: Showers early, clearing before noon and becoming a little colder, with wind moderating. Highs in the 40s with overnight lows in the low 30s.

Thursday-Sunday: Slight chance of showers east of Prescott Valley Thursday. Mostly sunny with highs in the 50s and lows in the low 30s although lows will dip into the 20s early Sunday morning. 

Forecast Table:

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/wxtables/

Navigate on the map to your location and click for a detailed local forecast.

Forecast discussion:

The precipitation this week is associated with a strong low pressure system that is expected to move in from the central Pacific to near the central California coast by Tuesday morning and remain there through Wednesday morning. This system will spread strong, moist southwesterlies across Arizona. Precipitation amounts will be highly dependent on location relative to terrain, with heaviest amounts on the upwind (southwest) side and lighter amounts on the downwind (east) side. The attached figure of forecast precipitation amounts shows locations in the Bradshaws receiving 1.5-2.5 inches of precipitation, while regions to the east, such as Chino Valley, Prescott Valley and Dewey-Humboldt will receive around 0.5-1.0 inches. Precipitation amounts on this map are liquid water equivalent (LWE), meaning the amount in the rain gauge if it all falls as rain. According to the map, Snowbowl, where all the precipitation will fall as snow, should get about 2 inches of LWE, which would translate to about 20 inches of new snow. As a rule of thumb, snowfall amounts are approximated as 10 times LWE, assuming it all falls as snow. Time to hit the slopes!

Elevated river flows will occur Tuesday and Wednesday.

Mark Sinclair (filling in for Curtis James)

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MetMail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once per week via email. Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Meteorology (https://erau.edu/degrees/bachelor/meteorology?campus=Prescott). Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates! 

Embry-Riddle Prescott Meteorology Website:

http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/

This has a selection of model forecast products and other links.

Official National Weather Service Forecast:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/WxTable

This clickable map will give you an official detailed local weather forecast for any location in the Western U.S.