Big Idea

• Good chance Tuesday of light to moderate rain showers
• Thunderstorms possible
• Wednesday - Sunday will see sunny days
• Read more…

We need the rain, but we love the sunshine! This week we get both.

Forecast Summary:

Monday - Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy. Good chance of light to moderate rain showers, with thunderstorms possible Tuesday late morning to afternoon. Possibility of accumulation of graupel under the more intense showers. Morning low Tuesday in the upper 30s. Afternoon high Tuesday in the lower 50s. Total precipitation 0.25” - 0.50”.

Wednesday - Friday: Mostly sunny and turning warmer. Northwesterly breezes 10 – 20 mph on Wednesday to Thursday. Lows warming from the mid 30s to near 50. Highs warming from the upper 60s to mid 80s.

Saturday - Sunday: Increasing high clouds and slightly cooler. Southwesterly breezes 10 -20 mph with higher gusts possible. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs cooling back down to near 80 by Sunday.

Forecast Table:

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/wxtables/

Navigate on the map to your location and click for a detailed local forecast.

Discussion:

A deep upper-level trough is currently moving into Arizona, bringing relatively moist low-level south-southwesterly flow. A cold frontal rain band is currently moving from west to east into the Prescott area as I write this, with windy conditions. Expect significantly cooler air behind the front tomorrow, with highs only rising to the lower 50s. The cold airmass will be unstable enough in northern Arizona tomorrow for isolated to scattered weak thunderstorms possible, with potential for lightning/thunder, some gusty wind, and possible graupel (small hail/rime ice). Storm motion will be toward the northeast at 10-20 mph. Storm total precipitation is expected to be near 0.25-0.50” of liquid equivalent. 

By Wednesday, a high amplitude ridge is expected to follow the trough and bring a rapid transition toward clear skies and a pronounced warming trend Wed. To Fri.

Saturday – Sunday, the ridge will begin to flatten and high clouds, breezes and slight cooling will be the trend for the weekend.

C. James

--

Curtis N. James, Ph.D.

Professor of Meteorology

Applied Aviation Sciences

Prescott Campus

Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University: Website | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube