Big Idea 

• We can look forward to sunny and gradually warmer temperatures for much of this week!
• Lows are still in the 20's.
• Maybe, maybe there will be light rain or snow showers on Sunday.
• Very characteristic of a La Niña winter
  
  Read more...

Enjoy lovely weather this week!

Forecast Summary:

Monday – Wednesday: Sunny and gradually warmer. Breezes dying down. Some high clouds on Wednesday. Morning lows in the lower 20s Tuesday, warming to the upper 20s on Wednesday. Highs in the upper 40s Monday, warming to the upper 50s by Wednesday.

Thursday: Breezy and slightly cooler. Morning lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the lower 50s.

Friday – Saturday: Increasing high clouds, and becoming breezy to windy on Saturday afternoon. Becoming slightly warmer. Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the upper 50s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy and cooler, with a chance of light rain or snow showers. Low in the lower 30s. High in the upper 40s.

Forecast Table:  

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/wxtables/

 Navigate on the map to your location and click for a detailed local forecast.

Forecast Discussion:

An upper-level trough dug south into Arizona last night, bringing a dry surface cold front along with it. While some light snow fell in Flagstaff overnight, no precipitation was reported at the Prescott airport. We did experience some brisk (breezy & cool) conditions last night and this morning, and today’s high temperature will be more than 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.

High pressure will rebuild over the Southwest the next few days, allowing temperatures to warm back up to the upper 50s by Wednesday, though a weak disturbance moving across the Four Corners region on Thursday could bring some high clouds on Wednesday afternoon and breezy, slightly cooler weather Thursday.

Another upper-level low is expected to dive down into Arizona Saturday night to Monday morning, with cooler and breezy weather again and a chance of light rain or snow showers Sunday to Monday morning.

Punxsutawney Phil, the famous groundhog, emerged on Feb. 2 to see his shadow, so legend has it that there will be 6 more weeks of winter. I would agree…since six weeks from today will be March 20, the spring equinox (the first day of spring). That said, Prescott often experiences snow events as late as mid spring (May). ?

The weather pattern that we are experiencing right now is very characteristic of what happens during a La Niña winter, with a high pressure ridge off the West Coast and northerly or northwesterly flow bringing occasional dry troughs into Arizona. Thus La Niña winters tend to be drier than normal. However, this winter has been anomalous…with greater than normal precipitation thus far. It will remain pretty dry most of this week, but there is a storm system on tap for Saturday night to Monday morning, and the long range forecasts are hinting towards wetter-than-normal conditions possibly returning by mid to late February.

C. James

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MetMail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once per week via email. Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Meteorology (https://erau.edu/degrees/bachelor/meteorology?campus=Prescott). Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates! 

Embry-Riddle Prescott Meteorology Website:

http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/

This has a selection of model forecast products and other links.

Official National Weather Service Forecast:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/WxTable

This clickable map will give you an official detailed local weather forecast for any location in the Western U.S.