Big Idea

• It will mostly sunny and mild this week
• Several low pressure systems will move around the ridge, bringing periods of high clouds.
• Slight chance of light rain Thursday - Saturday
• We are currently experiencing La Niña conditions
• Read more…

La Niña conditions should continue through this winter

Forecast Summary:

Continued mostly sunny and mild this week, but with some light breezes in the afternoon hours, especially Friday – Saturday. Periods of high clouds Tuesday – Saturday. Highs in the mid to upper 50s each day, with slight cooling over the coming weekend. Lows in the upper 20s to 30s (warmer when there is cloud cover). Precipitation is unlikely this week, although there is a slight chance of light rain showers Thursday night to Saturday morning.

Forecast Table:

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/wxtables/

Navigate on the map to your location and click for a detailed local forecast.

Discussion:

A ridge of high pressure will prevail this week, bringing generally dry and mild weather, though several low pressure systems will move around the ridge, bringing periods of high clouds. Weak low pressure presently over southeast Arizona will shift eastward, followed by a weak trough tomorrow, and a slightly stronger trough on Friday – Saturday. As a result, expect periods of high clouds this week, breezes, and slight cooling for Friday-Saturday.

I misstated last week that La Niña is when the eastern tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are warmer than normal. This statement was incorrect. It’s actually when the SSTs are colder than normal in the easter tropical Pacific. We are currently experiencing La Niña conditions, and they should continue through this winter, which is why the Climate Prediction Center (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/) is indicating that warmer and drier-than-normal weather is the more likely outcome for the next few months. However, we still have an anomalously warm pool of ocean water in the north-central Pacific and colder-than normal water in the Gulf of Alaska and down along the West Coast. It is anticipated that the La Niña conditions will subside during the Spring and move towards neutral conditions (near normal SSTs in the tropical Pacific), and who knows…El Niño conditions could develop later this year.

C. James

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Curtis N. James, Ph.D.                                                                       
Professor of Meteorology

Applied Aviation Sciences

Prescott Campus