Big Idea

• Temperatures will warm into the mid-eighties this week
• They will drop back to the 70’s this weekend
• Precipitation is unlikely in Yavapai County
• Read more...

This week’s weather should be lovely!

Forecast Summary:

Monday - Tuesday: Mostly sunny, cool, and breezy in the afternoons. Northwest breezes 10-20 mph Monday afternoon shifting to southwest breezes on Tuesday afternoon. Morning lows in the mid 40s. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s.

Wednesday - Thursday: Becoming warmer, with sunny skies except for increasing high clouds late Thursday. Light southwest breezes 10 - 15 on Wednesday afternoon, strengthening to 15-25 mph on Thursday.  Lows warming from into the lower 50s. Highs warming into the mid 80s.

Friday - Sunday: Variable high clouds and becoming gradually cooler. Southwesterly breezes 10 -20 mph with higher gusts possible. Lows cooling from the lower 50s on Friday morning into the upper 40s by Sunday. Highs cooling back down from the lower 80s on Friday to the mid 70s by Sunday.

Forecast Table:

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/wxtables/

Navigate on the map to your location and click for a detailed local forecast.

Discussion:

An upper-air disturbance currently located over the Four Corners region will continue to produce northwesterly breezes this afternoon turning to southwesterly by tomorrow. Some cloud buildups in the afternoon hours, otherwise mostly sunny. Rain showers are possible mainly over Eastern Arizona this afternoon – evening.

The trough is moving eastward towards the Plains, creating an environment somewhat favorable for severe thunderstorms in the south-central Plains this evening. If you are interested in seeing what severe thunderstorms look like on radar, look here: http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/ and here:https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=FWS-N0Q-0-24-100-usa-rad. There are a variety of other sites to choose from to watch severe weather. I like to start with the Storm Prediction Center website at www.spc.noaa.gov to view the current convective outlook for thunderstorms (severe and non-severe) as well as current tornado and severe thunderstorm watches. May – June is the time of year when severe weather is most common in the southern to central Plains due to a combination of moisture, instability, lifting, and vertical wind shear. On this date 22 years ago (3 May 1999), the strongest tornado ever observed and the strongest wind ever measured occurred in Moore, Oklahoma, just southwest of Oklahoma City. The observed wind gusts within that tornado were measured up to about 318 mph by mobile Doppler radar.

Late tomorrow here in the Southwest, high pressure will start to build over the Southwest, and we will see lighter breezes and sunny skies on Wednesday – Thursday, with a pronounced warming trend. Highs should climb to the mid 80s. Starting late on Thursday, the ridge axis will move east of us as troughing develops along the West Coast Friday through Sunday. Therefore expect periods of high clouds late Thursday through Sunday, with a gradual cooling trend back down to lows in the upper 40s by Sunday and highs in the mid 70s. No precipitation expected this week, although early next week we may see some light rain showers.

Have a great week!

Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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