Big Idea
- Most polls are biased towards the Democrats
- Trump knows how to focus on the swing states
- Early voting returns are favoring Republicans in the swing states
- In Maricopa County, Republicans have turned in more ballots than Democrats
- Read more...
Predictors say Trump can win the Electoral College
Everyone knows how biased the polls are toward the Democrats (even far-left Michael Moore admits it) and it gets sillier as the polls start amazingly showing more support for Trump closer to the election. But this year, the polls have not swung toward Trump as much as they did right before the election at this time in 2016. Not a single recent national poll listed on Real Clear Politics has Trump ahead. Rasmussen Reports, the most accurate pollster in 2016 at this time, had Hillary Clinton ahead by two points, which is how much she ended up winning the popular vote by. But Rasmussen has Biden up by even more this year, three points. And almost all the major polls have Trump trailing in the swing states.
It looks dire to the average American who isn’t paying attention. It’s dishonesty by the mainstream polling companies and the MSM reporting on the race, done deliberately to discourage people from bothering to vote for Trump.
The reality is far different. Trump could still win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote by a landslide, so Rasmussen’s poll is not very worrisome. Trump knows how to focus on the swing states in order to win the Electoral College, something Hillary Clinton did not understand as well.
Early voting returns in the swing states are favoring Republicans. At first, they appeared to be favoring Democrats, because so many Republicans chose to wait and vote in person this year rather than mail in their ballots due to fears of voter fraud. But once the in-person ballots started coming in, the Republicans started catching up. And traditionally, more Republicans than Democrats choose to vote on election day.
Professor Larry Schweikart has been closely following the early return of ballots in swing states. In Florida, Republicans are doing better than they were at this time in 2016. In 2016, Democrats turned in 96,400 more ballots than Republicans had by the night before the election. But as of Sunday, Republicans had already shrunk the Democrats’ lead past that amount. Trump went on to win Florida in 2016 by 113,000 votes. Even the left-leaning ABC News/Washington Post poll has Trump winning Florida by 2 points.
In Arizona (where I said over a month ago that it was ridiculous to worry about losing to Biden), Republicans have returned over 123,000 more ballots than Democrats in Maricopa County. The spread between Republicans and Democrats voting early at this time in Maricopa County is even greater than it was at this time in 2016 — a sign Trump is going to win Arizona by a larger margin. Since the rural parts of Arizona cancel out liberal Tucson, basically Maricopa County decides how the state goes. More people have voted in Maricopa County now than did in the entire 2016 election, reflecting excitement for Trump. Polling looks really good in the state too. Rasmussen has Trump up 4 points, outside the margin of error, Susquehanna has him up 1 and Trafalgar has him up by three.
Trafalgar was also highly accurate in 2016, correctly showing Trump up in Pennsylvania and Michigan when most everyone else thought he would lose there. This year, Trafalgar’s Robert Cahaly predicts Trump will win the Electoral College with at least high 270s.
In North Carolina, while Democrats returned 265,000 more ballots so far, at the same time in 2016 they’d returned 310,000 ballots and went on to lose the state by 3.2 points. The mainstream polls have the two candidates in a tie, with Rasmussen and Trafalgar showing Trump ahead.
In Ohio, 48% of ballots returned are by Republicans, far more than the 39% returned by Democrats. Trafalgar has Trump up 4 points and Fox News has him up 3 points. In Michigan, 41% of early ballot requests have come from Republicans and that same percentage has returned them. In contrast, Democrats have requested 39% of ballots and returned that same percentage. Trafalgar has Trump up 2 points and Fox News has him up 3 points.
In Texas, even the mainstream polls have Trump winning. Rasmussen has him ahead by a safe margin of 7 points. Votes from Republican areas are surging. Suburban counties like Hays and Denton saw both increases in voter registration and turnout, with turnout surpassing voter registration increases. These increases were larger than increases in more urban counties.
Those are the key swing states Trump will probably win, bringing him to 275 electoral votes. In 2016, Trump also surprisingly won Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Maine. Although he’s mostly down in all the mainstream polls in those states, Hillary Clinton went on to lose many swing states in 2016 where she was polling an average of 4.8 points ahead. Trump is campaigning hard in Pennsylvania, a sign he thinks he may win it.
Black voting is down everywhere, and since those voters traditionally favor Democrats, it’s hurting the Democrats. Since 2016, registered Republicans increased in swing states as registered Democrats mostly decreased.
There have been several reputable polls showing Trump will win, you just rarely hear about them in the MSM. The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express just released a poll of 1,500 likely voters which shows Trump winning the Electoral College by 326 to 212. It has him ahead of Biden in the swing states 49% to 42%. He’s even winning Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Stony Brook Political Scientist Helmut Norpoth created a presidential election prediction model that correctly predicted the winning candidate in 25 of the last 27 presidential elections. It predicts the winner based on which candidate had a better primary vote. Norpoth’s model predicts a 91% chance that Trump wins re-election, giving him 362 electoral votes in the process. The model only gave him an 87% chance of winning in 2016.
Schweikart also predicts that the GOP may win the House back by one or two seats. Why is Trump going to win, despite the devastation caused by COVID-19 (which the Democrats deliberately made worse with the lockdowns, in order to make people suffer and blame Trump)? The Democrats overplayed their hand with the race card. By calling everything racist, they allowed Antifa and Black Lives Matter to riot and destroy people and property for months, and the average American finally said enough. Trump has started a trend away from the Democratic Party — particularly by blacks — and from trusting the MSM. It’s just incredible to see it happen in our lifetime, considering how much control the left has over education, the media, Big Tech, entertainment and much of the legal system.
