Big Idea

• Monsoons have settled in for the week
• There will be high chances of thunderstorm activity each afternoon
• Storms will be capable of local flash flooding, small hail and lightning
• Stay tuned for further details
• Read more…

We love that rain!

Forecast Summary:

The monsoon season continues into this week, with high chances of mainly afternoon thunderstorm activity every day. Temperatures are slightly cooler than what we have been experiencing in the latter part of last week, where they will be ranging between mid 60s to low/mid 80s. Surface winds will generally be light and variable between 5 and 10 mph. Storm motion will be normally towards the W 5-10 mph today, turning northwestward or north-northwestward at 10-15 mph through the rest of the week. The storms will be capable of local flash flooding, small hail, and frequent lightning.

Forecast Table:

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/wxtables/

Navigate on the map to your location and click for a detailed local forecast.

Discussion:

We are currently under a weak upper-level ridge that will begin to amplify throughout this week, with the upper-level high becoming situated north of our region. The high will provide us with moisture from the upper-level easterly winds that will gradually shift to south-southeasterly as the high moves northeast in the latter part of the week. The dewpoint temperature remains pretty similar to last week with temperatures ranging from mid 50s to lower 60s Fahrenheit. Mid to high CAPE (instability) and very low CIN values (low resistance to thunderstorm development), with some low-level wind shear are expected this week, providing the typical airmass thunderstorms that we have been experiencing throughout the majority of this summer here in Prescott, but with some more organized multicell storms possible.

A new Tropical Storm Howard is currently located to the west far off the coast of Central America. As of 9 am today, it had sustained winds of 55 kts with a central pressure of 996 mb. It is predicted to become a hurricane by tomorrow morning followed by weakening over the next few days. The predicted path of the storm is toward the west, not affecting us here in Arizona. We are moving into the height of the tropical cyclone season (which occurs in mid September), so stay tuned for further developments.

Fun Fact: Do you ever notice the loud noises that cicadas make during the monsoon? Some believe that these sounds can be used to predict storm activity. Actually, the cicadas react to changes in temperature rather than humidity. They tend to “sing” when the temperature is above 82 F, and the male cicadas attempt to sing louder than other males in order to attract the attention of the female cicadas. Even so, thunderstorm activity is more likely when the air is hot and unstable, so there may be some truth to the old cicada theory. Here is an interesting article about cicadas in Arizona:https://www.azcentral.com/story/travel/arizona/2019/07/18/arizona-cicada-facts-do-they-predict-weather-monsoon-season/1719296001/

A. Infante / C. James

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Curtis N. James, Ph.D.                                                                       

Professor of Meteorology

Applied Aviation Sciences

Prescott Campus

3700 Willow Creek Road                                                                                          

Prescott, AZ 86301-3720                                                                                         

928.777.6655                                                                               

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Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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