Big Idea

• We’ve had a nice warm spell 
• But, the weather is changing this week
• Expect cold temperatures to arrive Thursday
• It might even snow!
• Read more...

Dig out your winter coats. Cold weather is coming!

Overview:

The Indian summer is ending. Dry and warm weather today. Becoming unsettled and much colder from Tuesday onward.

Forecast Table:

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/wxtables/

Navigate on the map to your location and click for a detailed local forecast.

Forecast:

Today, sunny and mild with afternoon highs in the upper 60s. Tuesday, cooler with a slight chance of afternoon showers with highs in the upper 50s. Wednesday will be sunny but cool, with afternoon highs again in the upper 50s. A stronger weather system will impact our region on Thursday and Friday. On Thursday, southerly winds will increase, gusting to 30 mph, with rain showers developing in the afternoon and continuing overnight, with a few inches of snow possible above about 6,000 ft. Highs Thursday in the lower 50s. Friday will be noticeably cooler with a few rain or snow showers persisting, with afternoon highs only in the mid-40s. Saturday morning will dawn very cold, with lows in the teens. Time to cover those sensitive plants and to be alert to freezing pipes. However, after a cold start, Saturday will be sunny, with temperatures warming to near 50. Sunday will continue sunny, with highs warming to near 60. Next week looks to continue this warming trend.

Additional notes for the weather nuts:

Successive computer model runs for this week’s weather systems have featured considerable run-to-run variability in precipitation chances. Over the last few days, model projections of precipitation totals for Thursday’s storm have ranged from less than 0.1 inch to over an inch. This is because subtle variations in pressure and airflow patterns can result in large variations in precipitation. As we get closer to the event, forecasts will become more consistent and skillful. Forecasters use many techniques, such as blending results from several models, to improve these forecasts.

Have a great week!

Mark.

Mark Sinclair, Ph.D.                                                               
Program Chair and Professor, Meteorology                                                                              
Department of Applied Aviation Sciences, College of Aviation                                

3700 Willow Creek Rd                                                                                                  
Prescott, AZ 86301                                                                                                       
928.777.3842                                                                                   
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Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University                                                     
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Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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