Mostly sunny with light wind

Big Idea

  • The rain at the beginning of this week is thanks to Hurricane Kay
  • Things will dry out across most of the state
  • Fall weather is on the way
  •


You can probably put your umbrella away for a while!


Forecast Summary:

Monday – Tuesday: There will be a chance of showers / thunderstorms, though most of the activity will be north of the Mogollon Rim. Some isolated severe storms are possible across the state. Storms that form will be capable of hail up to 1” diameter and gusty winds. Storms will generally propagate towards the northeast at 10-15 mph. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows in the upper 50s.

Wednesday – Sunday: Mostly sunny with light wind. Precipitation unlikely, except perhaps late in the day on Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Lows in the mid to upper 50s. 


Forecast Table:


Navigate on the map to your location and click for a detailed local forecast.


Forecast Discussion:

Hurricane Kay no longer exists, but the leftover moist air from the storm streamed across Arizona last weekend as the storm dissipated off the west coast of the Baja of California. This led to showers and thunderstorms around the state on Friday – Saturday. Then, late yesterday, a weak trough of low pressure left over from Kay began to drift northeastward across the state. This produced an area of cooler air and enhanced lifting and shearing that generated a line of thunderstorms moving northward across the Prescott area overnight. Rainfall totals this morning ranged from 0.25” to 0.75” across the area from last night’s fast-moving convective system and trailing stratiform rain.

Today and tomorrow, the atmosphere remains very moist, and with ample solar heating we will see scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening each day, especially north of the Mogollon Rim. The Storm Prediction Center (www.spc.noaa.gov) is indicating a marginal “MRGL” chance of severe thunderstorms with possibly large hail and damaging wind gusts over much of Arizona today.

By Wednesday, westerly winds will bring drier air across the state and the air will gradually dry out. Skies will become mostly clear. There is some indication in the long-range forecast models that additional tropical moisture could move across Arizona next Monday – Tuesday as low pressure develops along the California coast and ushers southerly winds across the state.  However, for now, it appears Wednesday – Sunday will be mostly sunny.


C. James


Curtis N. James, Ph.D.                                                                       
Professor of Meteorology

Applied Aviation Sciences

Prescott Campus

3700 Willow Creek Road                                                                                          
Prescott, AZ 86301-3720                                                                                         
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.                                                 

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Last modified on Tuesday, 13 September 2022 08:59
Published in Azeducation.news
Dr. Curtis N. James, Ph.D.

Curtis N. James, Ph. D. Is a Professor of Meteorology at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in the Department of Applied Aviation Sciences.

He has taught courses in beginning meteorology, aviation weather, thunderstorms, satellite and radar imagery interpretation, atmospheric physics, mountain meteorology, tropical meteorology and weather forecasting techniques for over 16 years. He participates in ERAU’s Study Abroad program, offering alternating summer programs each year in Switzerland and Brazil.

He earned a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Washington (2004) and participated in the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP; 1999), an international field research project in the European Alps. His research specialties include radar, mesoscale, and mountain meteorology. He earned his B.S. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Arizona (1995), during which time he gained two years of operational experience as a student intern with the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Tucson, Arizona (1993-1995).

Dr. James is a native of Arizona where he currently resides with his wife and five children. He is active in his community, having served on the Prescott SciTechFest Advisory Committee and as a Board Member for the Children's Museum Alliance, Inc. On his spare time, he enjoys weather watching, backpacking, camping, fishing, caving, mountain biking, acting, and music. He is an Eagle Scout and serves as the scoutmaster for a local scout troop.


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